Trouble with Baye's Theorem
Anyone out there who understands Baye's theorem, I'd love some help. I'm just beginning to read up on it, and I can't seem to get it to work for me.
I'm trying to see whether neuroscientific correlations count as evidence for or against dualism. Here's a first try.
So P(h/e&k) = [P(e/h&k) P(h/k)]/P(e/k)
Where:
h= dualism (Thomistic substance dualism)
e1= apparent mental --> physical causation (I also want to try it with e2=physical-->mental causation)
k= background information, like observations of human behavior & experience
It seems that:
P(e1/h&k) would be very high, maybe .8
P(h/k) is at least as likely to be true as false, so =.5
P(e/k) seems very low, maybe = .01 (quite generous in my mind)
But if I plug these values in, I get a probability of 40, which is crazy. Shouldn't it be between 1 and 0? What am I doing wrong?
I'm trying to see whether neuroscientific correlations count as evidence for or against dualism. Here's a first try.
So P(h/e&k) = [P(e/h&k) P(h/k)]/P(e/k)
Where:
h= dualism (Thomistic substance dualism)
e1= apparent mental --> physical causation (I also want to try it with e2=physical-->mental causation)
k= background information, like observations of human behavior & experience
It seems that:
P(e1/h&k) would be very high, maybe .8
P(h/k) is at least as likely to be true as false, so =.5
P(e/k) seems very low, maybe = .01 (quite generous in my mind)
But if I plug these values in, I get a probability of 40, which is crazy. Shouldn't it be between 1 and 0? What am I doing wrong?
1 Comments:
Thanks, John. I'll check it out. I really appreciate your help.
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